七月(yue)前兩(liang)周(zhou)的鋼(gang)市先揚后抑(yi)、震蕩加劇(ju)，112.62點(dian)的鋼(gang)之家鋼(gang)材(cai)基準價格指(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)，周(zhou)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)1.12%（跌(die)(die)幅(fu)擴(kuo)(kuo)大），月(yue)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)上漲(zhang)0.64%（由跌(die)(die)轉漲(zhang)），月(yue)同比(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)8.21%（跌(die)(die)幅(fu)收(shou)(shou)斂），年同比(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)7%（跌(die)(die)幅(fu)擴(kuo)(kuo)大）。其中：扁平材(cai)指(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)105點(dian)，周(zhou)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)0.2%（跌(die)(die)幅(fu)收(shou)(shou)斂）；長材(cai)指(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)121.3點(dian)，周(zhou)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)1.3%（跌(die)(die)幅(fu)收(shou)(shou)斂）；亞洲(zhou)指(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)115.9點(dian)，周(zhou)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)0.7%（跌(die)(die)幅(fu)收(shou)(shou)斂）。亞洲(zhou)中的中國指(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)117.7點(dian)，周(zhou)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)0.9%（跌(die)(die)幅(fu)收(shou)(shou)斂）；美(mei)洲(zhou)指(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)133.9點(dian)，周(zhou)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)持平；歐洲(zhou)指(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)(shu)92.9點(dian)，月(yue)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)1%（跌(die)(die)幅(fu)擴(kuo)(kuo)大）。基于中美(mei)貿易談判重啟、降息態勢擴(kuo)(kuo)大、流(liu)動性趨于充裕(yu)，以及(ji)超跌(die)(die)反彈(dan)等多因素作用，預計(ji)近期鋼(gang)市或現震蕩回升走勢。

2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)—2021年(nian)(nian)(nian)粗鋼(gang)產(chan)能(neng)年(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)8800萬-1.1億噸。經濟合作與(yu)發展(zhan)組(zu)織(OECD)7月2日發文(wen)稱(cheng)，如果目(mu)前的投資(zi)項目(mu)全部(bu)實現，粗鋼(gang)產(chan)能(neng)將在2018年(nian)(nian)(nian)至2021年(nian)(nian)(nian)間(jian)增(zeng)長3.9-4.9%，即每年(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)長8800萬-1.1億噸，其中大部(bu)分的新(xin)建產(chan)能(neng)在亞洲和(he)中東地區。

2022年(nian)伊朗將實現4500萬噸/年(nian)粗鋼產量(liang)(liang)。7月(yue)(yue)10日，伊朗負責(ze)礦業事(shi)務的(de)伊朗工(gong)業、礦業和貿(mao)易(yi)部副(fu)部長Jafar Sargini宣(xuan)布，伊朗計劃到(dao)伊朗歷年(nian)1400年(nian)（2021年(nian)3月(yue)(yue)至2022年(nian)3月(yue)(yue)）實現4500萬噸的(de)粗鋼年(nian)產量(liang)(liang)。鋼之家測算(suan)，屆時伊朗粗鋼產量(liang)(liang)將從2018年(nian)的(de)第(di)十(shi)，提升(sheng)到(dao)第(di)七(qi)名左右。

河鋼(gang)要為(wei)(wei)產能(neng)合作(zuo)發(fa)揮更大(da)作(zuo)用(yong)。7月(yue)6日(ri)（塞(sai)爾維亞時間），國家發(fa)展改革委副主任寧(ning)吉(ji)喆到河鋼(gang)塞(sai)鋼(gang)調研指導工作(zuo)。寧(ning)吉(ji)喆強(qiang)調，河鋼(gang)要在踐行“一帶一路(lu)”倡議(yi)過程中(zhong)推(tui)進高質量發(fa)展，為(wei)(wei)中(zhong)塞(sai)產能(neng)合作(zuo)乃至中(zhong)國和歐洲產能(neng)合作(zuo)發(fa)揮更大(da)作(zuo)用(yong)。

亞(ya)洲鋼材市場：震(zhen)蕩下(xia)滑。該地區115.9點的鋼之(zhi)家鋼材基準價格指數(shu)，周(zhou)環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)跌(die)(die)0.7%（跌(die)(die)幅收(shou)斂(lian)），月(yue)環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)漲1.1%（由跌(die)(die)轉漲），月(yue)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)跌(die)(die)7.1%（跌(die)(die)幅收(shou)斂(lian)），年同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)跌(die)(die)9%（跌(die)(die)幅收(shou)斂(lian)）。

扁平材(cai)方面：市場價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)漲跌(die)(die)不(bu)一。在(zai)(zai)韓國(guo)，SPHC4.5mm 熱(re)(re)(re)(re)軋(ya)(ya)(ya)(ya)板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)卷(juan)(juan)(juan)(juan)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)106萬(wan)(wan)韓元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，SPCC No.1 1.0mm冷(leng)軋(ya)(ya)(ya)(ya)板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)卷(juan)(juan)(juan)(juan)118萬(wan)(wan)韓元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，SPGC 1.2mm 鍍鋅為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)128萬(wan)(wan)韓元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，均(jun)與上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)末大體持(chi)(chi)平。有(you)消(xiao)息稱(cheng)，現(xian)代制(zhi)鐵(tie)計劃(hua)將在(zai)(zai)第三季(ji)度(du)(du)內提(ti)高(gao)船板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)和(he)汽車鋼(gang)(gang)(gang)(gang)板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)報(bao)(bao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)。有(you)證券(quan)分(fen)析師稱(cheng)，今(jin)年(nian)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)半年(nian)，現(xian)代制(zhi)鐵(tie)一直未能提(ti)高(gao)船板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)和(he)汽車鋼(gang)(gang)(gang)(gang)板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)。但進(jin)入三季(ji)度(du)(du)，現(xian)代制(zhi)鐵(tie)船板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)和(he)汽車鋼(gang)(gang)(gang)(gang)板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)成本較一季(ji)度(du)(du)每(mei)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)高(gao)了1.2萬(wan)(wan)韓元(yuan)（約(yue)合(he)10.16美(mei)元(yuan)）左右，因(yin)此迫切需(xu)要上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)調(diao)船板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)和(he)汽車鋼(gang)(gang)(gang)(gang)板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)。在(zai)(zai)越南(nan)，進(jin)口熱(re)(re)(re)(re)軋(ya)(ya)(ya)(ya)卷(juan)(juan)(juan)(juan)的(de)(de)(de)買(mai)家(jia)已將采購(gou)注意(yi)力轉向(xiang)(xiang)印度(du)(du)產(chan)熱(re)(re)(re)(re)軋(ya)(ya)(ya)(ya)卷(juan)(juan)(juan)(juan)，以應對不(bu)斷上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲的(de)(de)(de)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)熱(re)(re)(re)(re)卷(juan)(juan)(juan)(juan)報(bao)(bao)盤。截至7月(yue)10日(ri)(ri)，東(dong)(dong)南(nan)亞(ya)(ya)進(jin)口熱(re)(re)(re)(re)軋(ya)(ya)(ya)(ya)卷(juan)(juan)(juan)(juan)（主要參考(kao)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)產(chan)厚(hou)度(du)(du)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)2-3mm的(de)(de)(de)再軋(ya)(ya)(ya)(ya)級(ji)SAE1006規(gui)格(ge)(ge)(ge)熱(re)(re)(re)(re)軋(ya)(ya)(ya)(ya)卷(juan)(juan)(juan)(juan)或同(tong)級(ji)其(qi)他熱(re)(re)(re)(re)軋(ya)(ya)(ya)(ya)產(chan)品）CFR參考(kao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)510美(mei)元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，比(bi)之前(qian)(qian)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲了9-13美(mei)元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)。有(you)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)交易(yi)商(shang)稱(cheng)，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)熱(re)(re)(re)(re)軋(ya)(ya)(ya)(ya)卷(juan)(juan)(juan)(juan)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)的(de)(de)(de)反彈使得(de)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)相關鋼(gang)(gang)(gang)(gang)廠紛(fen)紛(fen)撤回了前(qian)(qian)期對越南(nan)市場的(de)(de)(de)出(chu)(chu)口報(bao)(bao)盤。他同(tong)時表(biao)示(shi)(shi)，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)出(chu)(chu)口熱(re)(re)(re)(re)軋(ya)(ya)(ya)(ya)近(jin)期在(zai)(zai)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)已經(jing)喪(sang)失了競爭力。另外(wai)，越財政部(bu)長7月(yue)4日(ri)(ri)表(biao)示(shi)(shi)，越南(nan)決心打(da)消(xiao)對其(qi)鋼(gang)(gang)(gang)(gang)鐵(tie)出(chu)(chu)口存在(zai)(zai)加工轉口貿易(yi)問題的(de)(de)(de)擔憂，用(yong)行動(dong)向(xiang)(xiang)總統唐納德·特朗普先生證明(ming)，我們(men)采取(qu)了嚴肅認真(zhen)的(de)(de)(de)態度(du)(du)。在(zai)(zai)印度(du)(du)，盡管原(yuan)材(cai)料成本上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)升，但印度(du)(du)的(de)(de)(de)幾個(ge)主要鋼(gang)(gang)(gang)(gang)廠依(yi)舊打(da)算在(zai)(zai)7月(yue)份不(bu)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)調(diao)產(chan)品價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)，繼續維持(chi)(chi)現(xian)有(you)定價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)。有(you)市場分(fen)析人士表(biao)示(shi)(shi)，在(zai)(zai)過(guo)去的(de)(de)(de)3個(ge)月(yue)里，印度(du)(du)鋼(gang)(gang)(gang)(gang)鐵(tie)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)下(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)了近(jin)20%。但鑒于(yu)(yu)基建和(he)建筑行業活動(dong)低迷(mi)不(bu)振，鋼(gang)(gang)(gang)(gang)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)下(xia)(xia)行的(de)(de)(de)趨勢很可(ke)能會貫穿整(zheng)個(ge)季(ji)風(feng)季(ji)節，因(yin)此仍然不(bu)愿冒險上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)調(diao)產(chan)品價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)。目前(qian)(qian)，熱(re)(re)(re)(re)卷(juan)(juan)(juan)(juan)交易(yi)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)仍為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)3萬(wan)(wan)盧(lu)比(bi)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，遠低于(yu)(yu)2月(yue)份的(de)(de)(de)3.7萬(wan)(wan)盧(lu)比(bi)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)。截至7月(yue)11日(ri)(ri)，東(dong)(dong)盟熱(re)(re)(re)(re)卷(juan)(juan)(juan)(juan)進(jin)口價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)517美(mei)元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)（CFR），較上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)月(yue)末上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲15美(mei)元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)。中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)熱(re)(re)(re)(re)軋(ya)(ya)(ya)(ya)板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)卷(juan)(juan)(juan)(juan)出(chu)(chu)口報(bao)(bao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)515美(mei)元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)（FOB），與前(qian)(qian)持(chi)(chi)平。SPCC 1.0mm冷(leng)軋(ya)(ya)(ya)(ya)板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)卷(juan)(juan)(juan)(juan)出(chu)(chu)口均(jun)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)550元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，較之前(qian)(qian)下(xia)(xia)跌(die)(die)5美(mei)元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)。DX51D+Z 1.0mm鍍鋅卷(juan)(juan)(juan)(juan)出(chu)(chu)口610美(mei)元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)（FOB），與前(qian)(qian)持(chi)(chi)平。東(dong)(dong)亞(ya)(ya)和(he)東(dong)(dong)南(nan)亞(ya)(ya)地區進(jin)口板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)坯(pi)的(de)(de)(de)CFR參考(kao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)為(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)440-450美(mei)元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，也與之前(qian)(qian)持(chi)(chi)平。有(you)印尼消(xiao)息人士稱(cheng)，即(ji)使國(guo)內板(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)(ban)材(cai)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)基本不(bu)變(bian)，但由于(yu)(yu)本幣匯(hui)率(lv)強(qiang)勁，印尼買(mai)家(jia)仍愿意(yi)以稍高(gao)的(de)(de)(de)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)進(jin)口國(guo)外(wai)鋼(gang)(gang)(gang)(gang)鐵(tie)。