宏(hong)觀政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)給予市場信心(xin),工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)機械持續(xu)(xu)性將延長(chang)。上半(ban)(ban)年在(zai)去杠桿,社(she)融(rong)規模縮減,流(liu)動(dong)(dong)性緊張(zhang)等不(bu)(bu)利(li)因(yin)素影(ying)響下(xia)(xia)(xia),市場對工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)機械行(xing)業持續(xu)(xu)性的擔憂不(bu)(bu)斷加劇,因(yin)此(ci),盡(jin)管每個月的挖掘機銷量不(bu)(bu)斷超預期(qi),但各龍(long)頭(tou)企業的股價仍(reng)不(bu)(bu)溫(wen)不(bu)(bu)火,實際這說明悲觀預期(qi)已經反映在(zai)上半(ban)(ban)年股價中(zhong)。此(ci)次會議部署不(bu)(bu)僅(jin)提(ti)出(chu)積(ji)極(ji)財政(zheng)政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)要更加積(ji)極(ji),穩(wen)健的貨幣(bi)政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)要松緊適度,并且強(qiang)調保(bao)持宏(hong)觀政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)穩(wen)定,堅(jian)持不(bu)(bu)搞“大水漫(man)灌”式強(qiang)刺激,推動(dong)(dong)在(zai)建(jian)(jian)基礎(chu)設(she)施工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)資金(jin)使用進(jin)度,同時(shi)要有(you)效保(bao)障在(zai)建(jian)(jian)項目(mu)資金(jin)需(xu)求(qiu)。在(zai)此(ci)次政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)之風(feng)帶動(dong)(dong)下(xia)(xia)(xia),基建(jian)(jian)項目(mu)下(xia)(xia)(xia)半(ban)(ban)年開工(gong)(gong)(gong)進(jin)度有(you)望加快,基建(jian)(jian)投資增(zeng)速下(xia)(xia)(xia)半(ban)(ban)年有(you)望回歸(gui)常態,市場悲觀預期(qi)會進(jin)一(yi)步,工(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)機械持續(xu)(xu)性將延長(chang)。

目前仍處于周(zhou)期(qi)上(shang)行階段,重點(dian)在于各企業(ye)利潤(run)(run)端的彈性。之前市場一直將(jiang)2018年(nian)(nian)與上(shang)一波2011年(nian)(nian)進行類(lei)(lei)比(bi),認為今年(nian)(nian)就是(shi)周(zhou)期(qi)上(shang)行的高(gao)點(dian),但(dan)實際上(shang),2011年(nian)(nian)5月份(fen)的時(shi)候,挖(wa)掘(jue)機銷量(liang)同比(bi)已經(jing)負增(zeng)(zeng)長了,增(zeng)(zeng)速-12.44%,但(dan)是(shi)今年(nian)(nian)5月份(fen)挖(wa)機銷量(liang)同比(bi)仍增(zeng)(zeng)長71.35%。所(suo)以,我們認為不能簡單這樣類(lei)(lei)比(bi),從這一波周(zhou)期(qi)的復蘇來看,更新需(xu)求(qiu)托(tuo)底+新增(zeng)(zeng)需(xu)求(qiu)+出口不斷(duan)創新高(gao),并(bing)且環保(bao)因素催化下,需(xu)求(qiu)韌性增(zeng)(zeng)強,不同于上(shang)一波的增(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)邏(luo)(luo)輯,這一波周(zhou)期(qi)復蘇的主要邏(luo)(luo)輯是(shi):存量(liang)結構優化為主,增(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)邏(luo)(luo)輯為輔,龍(long)(long)頭(tou)企業(ye)利潤(run)(run)端進入(ru)三年(nian)(nian)左右(you)持續向上(shang)期(qi),龍(long)(long)頭(tou)企業(ye)利潤(run)(run)端的增(zeng)(zeng)速比(bi)行業(ye)銷量(liang)端的增(zeng)(zeng)速更值得(de)關注。

龍(long)頭(tou)企(qi)業(ye)穿越周(zhou)期,表(biao)現將持續(xu)(xu)超(chao)越宏觀(guan)與行(xing)業(ye)。①競爭格(ge)局優化,國內龍(long)頭(tou)企(qi)業(ye)市(shi)(shi)占率提(ti)升。經(jing)過(guo)幾輪行(xing)業(ye)洗牌,部(bu)分中小品牌企(qi)業(ye)退出市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang),工程機械行(xing)業(ye)集(ji)中度逐步提(ti)高,以國內挖掘(jue)機市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)集(ji)中度為例,2012年(nian)到2017年(nian),CR4由(you)37%上(shang)升到53%,CR8由(you)61%上(shang)升到76%,說明(ming)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)集(ji)中度提(ti)高,龍(long)頭(tou)企(qi)業(ye)市(shi)(shi)占率不斷提(ti)升;②報表(biao),盈利(li)(li)向(xiang)(xiang)上(shang)彈(dan)性大。首先(xian),龍(long)頭(tou)企(qi)業(ye)新(xin)(xin)增資(zi)本開支有限,毛(mao)利(li)(li)率進入上(shang)升通道;其次,經(jing)營質量改(gai)善,現金流創(chuang)歷史新(xin)(xin)高;盈利(li)(li)向(xiang)(xiang)上(shang)彈(dan)性大,凈(jing)利(li)(li)率開始穩步向(xiang)(xiang)上(shang)。以三一(yi)重工為例,2016年(nian)凈(jing)利(li)(li)率為0.70%,在(zai)2018年(nian)Q1行(xing)業(ye)回暖時,凈(jing)利(li)(li)率已(yi)至12.77%,距(ju)離歷史高點17%的凈(jing)利(li)(li)率還有空間;③龍(long)頭(tou)企(qi)業(ye)海(hai)(hai)外(wai)收(shou)入貢獻持續(xu)(xu)上(shang)升。三一(yi)的海(hai)(hai)外(wai)收(shou)入占比(bi)已(yi)經(jing)超(chao)過(guo)30%,國內企(qi)業(ye)相繼在(zai)十幾年(nian)前就開始了布局,通過(guo)海(hai)(hai)外(wai)布局,收(shou)獲海(hai)(hai)外(wai)需求增長紅利(li)(li)。